(Bloomberg) — New US sanctions that took effect on Friday may leave nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude adrift, forcing numerous tankers to seek alternative ports as global oil trade undergoes a significant transformation. Washington’s recent decision to blacklist major oil producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC marks one of the most assertive moves by the current administration under President Donald Trump, as he intensifies pressure on the Kremlin in response to the conflict in Ukraine. The US Treasury noted this week that the sanctions are already succeeding, evident by reduced demand and price reductions on important Russian oil grades. With the restrictions now active, Indian refiners are racing to secure substitute supplies, rapidly booking oil tankers from the Middle East, which has driven freight rates for that route to levels not seen in nearly five years. Traders are closely observing potential buyers for the crude from Lukoil and Rosneft that is currently en route. \u201cWhile Russian export flows remain steady, they are not reaching their intended destinations,\u201d said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. \u201cIf this trend continues and results in a bottleneck, we could see a decrease in supply, which would worry the markets.\u201d Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that around 48 million barrels of Rosneft and Lukoil crude, primarily of the Urals and ESPO varieties, are in transit or about to load. This includes about 50 tankers heading to China and India, alongside others that have no clear destination or are targeting smaller ports across the Baltic Sea and the South China Sea as intermediaries distance themselves from these transactions. Aiming to maintain its crude oil flow, Russia is prioritizing loading operations, maintaining seaborne shipments at approximately 3.4 million barrels daily, based on Bloomberg’s vessel-tracking data. Despite this, the benchmark prices have largely remained resilient against the latest restrictions. Nevertheless, not all of these barrels may find buyers, even in Asia\u2019s largest markets. While China and India have taken the majority of Russia\u2019s exports since the onset of the Ukraine invasion in 2022 and maintain strong ties with Moscow, both nations are cautious about getting caught up in potential secondary sanctions as the US increases scrutiny on entities facilitating Russian oil exports. The effectiveness of these restrictions and the US’s willingness to enforce them will significantly impact the volume of oil reaching refiners. \u201cThis situation is challenging, but it may only last for a few months,\u201d commented Adam Lanning, senior tanker market analyst at shipbroker SSY. \u201cIn the coming months, we\u2019ll likely see the markets adjust and develop solutions to import this crude without attracting attention.\u201d The mounting pressure on Russian oil exports has already led to a shift towards more conventional grades. However, the next few days will test this resilience. Recently, two vessels carrying Urals that had previously turned back \u2014 likely in response to sanctions \u2014 have resumed their journeys, indicating they are set for India. It appears improbable that they will reach their final destinations before the wind-down period concludes on November 21. The Spirit 2, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals from Rosneft, had turned back near the Suez Canal and waited for over a week before continuing its voyage toward Asia. The Furia, another Aframax vessel that executed a notable U-turn in the Baltic Sea in late October, has just navigated past the Suez Canal this week on its way to India, transporting nearly 730,000 barrels of Urals, according to tracking data. Conversely, some vessels are already highlighting the disruptions that Western sanctions can cause. In Russia’s Far East, the Cindy loaded approximately 770,000 barrels of ESPO from Kozmino in early November with an unclear destination. It is now heading toward the open waters off Singapore and Malaysia, where crude oil is often transferred between tankers to obscure its origins. The Fortis, carrying 720,000 barrels of Urals from Rosneft, is sailing toward Yeosu, South Korea \u2014 another hotspot for ship-to-ship transfers \u2014 after recently changing course to conduct a transfer in Indian waters. Initially, the Fortis was expected to dock in Ningbo, China, before altering its destination to Yeosu. –With contributions from Serene Cheong and Andrew Janes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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